When you’re making an attempt to depart the race monitor with more money than you entered with, you higher discover ways to handicap a race and choose winners higher than the gang. Some folks suppose meaning they’ve to choose extra winners than the common individual. That is not essentially true.
It is not uncommon information that the favourite in a race, the horse with probably the most cash wager on it, wins a couple of third of the time. That statistic might be deceptive. Some favorites go off at a really brief value, corresponding to 2-5 whereas others go off at a lot greater odds, corresponding to 5-2. Whereas the horse at 2-5 pays $2.40 to win, the horse at 5-2 odds pays $7.00 for each $2 wager. That may be a large distinction.
If the horses at 5-2 gained a 3rd of the time, all you would need to do is wager any favourite at 5-2 odds and you’ll be forward of the sport, however the issue is that the 5-2 favorites do not win on the identical charge as horses at 2-5. It doesn’t matter what the chances could also be on the favourite, they normally pay lower than their probabilities of successful justify for truthful worth. That determine of a couple of third of the races consists of the low priced favorites who could win greater than a 3rd of the time and the excessive finish favorites who could win lower than a 3rd of the time.
Due to this fact, you not solely have to handicap the horse race higher than the gang, however it’s worthwhile to choose horses who will win sufficient occasions to offset the prices of your bets and nonetheless go away a revenue. Taking an instance from the favorites, if you’ll find horses who repeatedly win at higher than 2-1 odds however will win greater than a 3rd of the time, you’ll make a revenue.
So whenever you handicap the races, preserve that in thoughts. Begin with the fundamentals corresponding to velocity, class, recency or kind, connections. The way you calculate velocity is as much as you, you possibly can add the horses final three velocity figures and the horse with the very best complete is the quickest, or you possibly can simply go by the final race velocity determine, or any technique you favor. The essential factor is to ensure you all the time use the identical technique.
When measuring class, take a look at the purse cash the horse has been working for. The upper the purse, the upper the category. As soon as once more, you possibly can complete the previous couple of races and the very best complete is probably the most class. However watch out, as a result of simply because a horse raced for a excessive purse, it does not imply she or he was aggressive. Some handicappers take a look at the amount of cash the horse has earned in its final 5 races as a real indicator of sophistication.
Type and recency means what situation the horse is in now. Thoroughbreds and Standardbreds are athletes and like all athletes, they need to train and the higher form they’re in, the higher they carry out. A superb indication of kind is any horse who has completed within the cash (1st, 2nd, third) in both of its final two races, or raced inside two lengths of the chief for not less than two calls in the next class race. As a way to ensure that the horse continues to be in that situation, its most up-to-date race ought to have been not less than inside 40 days and ideally inside 30 days or much less.
The connections are the jockey and coach. Profitable jockey coach groups win many races and the win percentages are printed up to now performances for all to see. As a basic rule, I do not prefer to wager on a jockey with lower than a ten% win common or a coach with lower than a 20% win common. Some jockey coach groups win at higher than 30%. That is essential to bear in mind whenever you handicap a horse race.
It’ll take apply to discover ways to take a look at all these figures after which determine simply how usually every horse would win if all of them raced in the identical race 10 occasions or 100 occasions, however that’s precisely how you determine what every wager is price. As an example, if you already know a specific horse, with a sure velocity and sophistication score and the jockey that’s on it as we speak would win 3 out of 10 occasions, then you already know that the horse’s truthful worth odds need to be not less than 5-2. Why? As a result of if that horse gained 3 races out of 10 you would need to make investments a minimal of $20 (primarily based on $2 win bets) to play all of the races. That is $20.
A horse that wins at 5-2 pays $7, so 3 x $7 = $21. Admittedly, that is not a lot revenue, however it’s the break even mark. So your job, if you wish to make money as a handicapper, is to make your individual morning line odds for what you suppose every horse is actually price. When you suppose a horse will win a 3rd of the time in opposition to these identical horse race malaysia, then a break even level turns into 2-1. When you determine that you simply need to not less than make 50% revenue whenever you win, then you possibly can set your individual line at 3-1 for that horse.
Bear in mind, you will not win on a regular basis, so it’s important to have a large enough margin to pay in your losses. Additionally, you will need to apply so much to change into a adequate handicapper to beat the gang. Add up the velocity figures, add up the purses, make an observation of every horse that has completed within the cash, and circle any good jockey coach groups. After some time, the winners will stand out.
